Good news, Bad news, No news
The good news is that like minded countries, Brazil, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, and Oman all had their voting rights restored and will likely be present to vote on SAWS. The bad news is that Antigua & Barbados (counts as one) and Laos also had their voting rights restored and are allied (cough, cough...bought off) with Japan.
The resulting percent of yes votes is predicted to stay the same (67%) as the previous analysis indicated. A three-quarter (75%) majority vote is required to pass SAWS.
*Updated* IWC Contracting Government's Voting Rights
| Country | Voting Status | Designation |
|---|---|---|
| Antigua & Barbuda | Voting rights restored | Japan |
| Argentina | LM | |
| Australia | LM | |
| Austria | LM | |
| Belgium | LM | |
| Belize* | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Unknown |
| Benin | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Brazil | Voting rights restored | LM |
| Bulgaria | LM | |
| Cambodia | Japan | |
| Cameroon | Japan | |
| Chile | LM | |
| People's Republic of China | Voting rights suspended as of May 29 | Japan |
| Colombia | LM | |
| Republic of the Congo | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Costa Rica | Voting rights restored | LM |
| Côte d'Ivoire | Japan | |
| Croatia | LM | |
| Cyprus | Voting rights suspended as of May 29 | LM |
| Czech Republic | LM | |
| Denmark** | Japan | |
| Dominica | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Dominican Republic | Voting rights restored | LM |
| Ecuador | LM | |
| Eritrea | Japan | |
| Estonia | LM | |
| Finland | LM | |
| France | LM | |
| Gabon | Japan | |
| The Gambia | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Germany | LM | |
| Republic of Ghana | Japan | |
| Grenada | Japan | |
| Guatemala* | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Unknown |
| Guinea-Bissau | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Republic of Guinea | Japan | |
| Hungary | LM | |
| Iceland | Japan | |
| India | LM | |
| Ireland | LM | |
| Israel | LM | |
| Italy | LM | |
| Japan | Japan | |
| Kenya | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | LM |
| Kiribati | Japan | |
| Republic of Korea | Japan | |
| Laos | Voting rights restored | Japan |
| Lithuania | LM | |
| Luxembourg | LM | |
| Mali | Voting rights suspended as of May 29 | Japan |
| Republic of the Marshall Islands | Japan | |
| Mauritania | Voting rights suspended as of May 29 | Japan |
| Mexico | LM | |
| Monaco | LM | |
| Mongolia | Japan | |
| Morocco | Japan | |
| Nauru | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Netherlands | LM | |
| New Zealand | LM | |
| Nicaragua* | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Unknown |
| Norway | Japan | |
| Oman | Voting rights restored | LM |
| Republic of Palau | Japan | |
| Panama | LM | |
| Peru | LM | |
| Poland | LM | |
| Portugal | Voting rights suspended as of May 29 | LM |
| Romania | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | LM |
| Russian Federation | Japan | |
| San Marino | LM | |
| St Kitts and Nevis | Japan | |
| St Lucia | Japan | |
| St Vincent & The Grenadines | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Senegal | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Slovak Republic | LM | |
| Slovenia | LM | |
| Solomon Islands | Voting rights suspended as of May 29 | Japan |
| South Africa | LM | |
| Spain | LM | |
| Suriname | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Sweden | LM | |
| Switzerland | LM | |
| Tanzania | Japan | |
| Togo | Voting rights suspended on earlier occasion | Japan |
| Tuvalu | Japan | |
| UK | LM | |
| Uruguay | LM | |
| USA | LM |
Like Minded with Voting Rights = 42
Japan/Iceland/Norway and Allies with Voting Rights = 25
Recently lost voting rights = 5
Lost voting rights on earlier occasion = 16
South Atlantic Whaling Sanctuary (SAWS) Analysis:
There are four countries (Benin, Chinia, Nauru, Togo) that voted against the SAWS that have still not paid. One pro-Japan that did not vote (Marshall Islands) and that now has the right to vote.
Analysis of SAWS vote 2012
| 38 | Yes votes on SAWS in 2012 |
| 21 | No votes on SAWS in 2012 |
| 2 | Abstention votes (St. Vincent & Grenadines and Morocco) on SAWS in 2012 |
| 64.5% yes votes on SAWS in 2012; 75% needed to pass | |
Analysis of potential SAWS vote in 2014
| 35 | 2014 Like Minded countries with voting rights that voted yes/si on SAWS in 2012 |
| 1 | 2014 Like Minded country (Croatia) with voting rights that was not present for the SAWS vote in 2012 |
| 6 | 2014 Like Minded countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Oman, San Marino, and Slovak Republic) with voting rights for IWC/65 that did not attend IWC/64 |
| 2 | 2014 Japan allied countries (Denmark & Gabon) with voting rights that voted yes/si for SAWS in 2012 |
| 18 | 2014 Japan allied countries with voting rights that voted no for SAWS in 2012 |
| 3 | 2014 Japan allied country (Cameroon, Guinea, Marshall Islands) with voting rights for IWC/65 that did not attend IWC/64 |
| 1 | 2014 Japan allied country (Morocco) with voting rights that abstained from SAWS vote in 2012 |
| 44 | If all countries with current voting rights are present at IWC/65 and all who voted yes/si on SAWS in 2012 cast the same vote in 2014, if Croatia were to vote for SAWS, and if the five like-minded countries not present at IWC/64 vote in favor of the SAWS proposal at IWC/65 |
| 22 | If all Japan allied countries that voted no (or abstained) on SAWS in 2012 or that did not attend IWC/64 with current voting rights are present at IWC/65 and voted no on SAWS in 2014 |
| 67% potential yes/si votes on SAWS; 75% needed to pass | |
If the 67 countries currently with voting rights were all present at IWC/65, 51 countries would have to vote yes/si on SAWS for it to pass
| 42 | Current number of like-minded countries with voting rights |
| 1 | Current number of like-minded countries without voting rights |
| 2 | Number of countries allied with Japan (Denmark and Gabon) that voted yes/si on SAWS in 2012 |
| 45 | Total potential yes/si votes on SAWS if all like-minded countries were present at IWC/65, had voting rights, and if Gabon and Denmark again voted yes/si on SAWS in 2014 |